I’ve been writing about sports for as long as anyone would listen to me. These days, I don’t write about sports as much as I show people how to spot trends and patterns, which makes for more informed fans. When it comes to March Madness, maybe it’s not quite as lucky as we all make it out to be.

My approach to the tourney starts with a Spider Graph, which is a quick representation of a basketball player’s output that you can see at a glance. Essentially, the larger a player’s area on the graph, the more complete they are. In the NBA, players like Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard have pretty impressive Spider Graphs. The college ranks aren’t without their superstars, though. For example, let’s look at three players that earned serious Player of the Year consideration this year: Ohio State’s Evan Turner, Maryland’s Grevis Vasquez, and Kentucky’s John Wall.

All three are first team All-Americans this year, and you can see why pretty clearly. It’s no accident that all three of them have piloted their team to a high seed in the tournament. They all have high expectations, and their teams will need them to come up big if they want to live up to them. It’s no accident that I’ve chosen these three to look at, either. All three are guards, although that’s stretching things a bit for Turner, who is more of a small forward. Guard play is key in the NCAA tournament. If you don’t believe me, ask Stephen Curry, who carried a mediocre Davidson squad to the cusp of the Final Four in 2008.

All three of these players could carry their teams to the promised land over the next few weeks. In fact, many people expect them to. I know I have Kentucky in the finals in my bracket, and I doubt I’m alone there. Both Ohio State and Maryland are trendy Elite Eight picks. But I imagine a large part of why we expect these three teams to make deep runs is because we’ve heard a lot about these players. Wall and Turner are widely expected to be the top two picks in this summer’s NBA Draft. But are there any other gems we’ve overlooked out there? Is there another Stephen Curry playing for a low-profile team waiting to burst onto the national stage this year?

You’d better believe there is, or else I wouldn’t have spent so long building up to it.

I’m here to tell you that there are two stellar guards from less prominent schools that you’re going to hear a lot about over the next couple of weeks. Perhaps coincidentally, they’re both from the same conference – the Mountain West Conference. The MWC might be the best conference outside of the power six (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-10, SEC) this year, with four schools making an appearance in the tournament, as many as the SEC and more than the Pac-10 (2). And once again, it’s all thanks to tremendous guard play. BYU’s Jimmer Fredette and New Mexico’s Darington Hobson lit up scoreboards this year en route to becoming third team All-Americans. If you haven’t heard of them, don’t stress too much; you aren’t alone. But take a look at their Spider Graphs and try to tell me they couldn’t hold their own against Turner, Vasquez, and Wall.

Not too shabby, right? For those not quite as graphically inclined, I’ll break this down for you. Wall has been averaging 17 points and 6 assists a game this year, which is pretty impressive. But Fredette has been putting up nearly 22 points a game and 5 assists, all while playing with a much less talented supporting cast. Hobson isn’t quite as impressive in terms of scoring, averaging only 16 points a game, but he more than makes up for it on the boards, pulling down over 9 rebounds a game. Give yourself a second to take that in. New Mexico has a guard that is nearly averaging a double-double. A guard. Wondering why they pulled off a 3 seed anymore?

Remember, guard play can make or break a team in the tournament. And while Turner, Vasquez, and Wall are three of the best guards in the country, Fredette and Hobson aren’t that far behind. Don’t be surprised if these two put their teams on their backs and carry them well beyond the first weekend. New Mexico will be dangerous in the East region. BYU is almost criminally underseeded as a 7 in the West region.

That’s not to say that Fredette and Hobson are the only guards worth paying attention to. Northern Iowa’s Ali Farokhmanesh, UTEP’s Randy Culpepper, and Washington’s Isaiah Thomas are all equally impressive. But there’s a reason Fredette and Hobson are All-Americans, and there’s a reason the two of them had their teams battling for supremacy in the tough MWC.

So now, when your friends come raving to you about how amazing Turner and Wall are, give them a knowing smile and say, “Sure, they’re alright. But have you heard of Jimmer Fredette or Darington Hobson?” And when they give you a confused look in response, feel free to let out a satisfied sigh at knowing that you’re going to clean up in your bracket pool.